Let's Stop Downplaying the Importance of Batting Average

As a kid growing up in the 90s, one of my favorite things to do during the summer was pop on SportsCenter and check out all the highlights and stats from the night before. Shortly after, all the neighborhood kids would meet at one specific house, and play baseball. In between innings or games, we would all argue and try to prove why our favorite player was the best in baseball.

There were a few key criteria that would support such arguments between passionate 10 year old boys, but the main two were batting average and home runs. To suggest a player batting under .300 would be laughed at throughout the neighborhood. It was as if it was the floor if you even wanted to be in the conversation of a great hitter.

Fast forward 25 years, speaking to any baseball evaluator, average is almost scoffed at and deemed irrelevant. Money ball helped emphasize on base percentage. Since the introduction of money ball, advanced statistics have taken over the game. Many Sabremetricians prefer stats like wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) and wOBA (weighted on base average). Strikeouts have almost become common place and no longer frowned upon as long as their advanced metrics were in a good place.

To non-Sabremetricians, these stats consist of the following (pulled from MLB.com Glossary):

wRC+ (((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100.

wOBA

 (unintentional BB factor x unintentional BB + HBP factor x HBP + 1B factor x 1B + 2B factor x 2B + 3B factor x 3B + HR factor x HR)/(AB + unintentional BB + SF + HBP)

Based on MLB's glossary, wRC+ is intended to quantify run creation and normalize it so production can be compared between eras and different ballparks. wOBA assigns value to each method of reaching base, in terms of scoring runs.

Now let's look at how these stats tell a story about Luis Arraez for 2023.

BAA - .354

OBP - .393

SLG - .469

wOBA - .369

wRC+ - 132

SO % - 5.5%

Now lets look at his teammate Jorge Soler

BAA - .250

OBP - .341

SLG - .512

wOBA - .361

wRC+ - 126

SO % - 24.3%

To the naked eye, Arraez's ability to get bat on ball far exceeds Soler. Without even looking at homerun numbers, it is clear by looking at SLG percentage that Soler's power far exceeds Arraez but will not put the ball in play nearly as much as Arraez.

Now let's look at some of the advanced metrics. If solely looking at wOBA and wRC+, both players are very even statistically. Arraez produces roughly 6 more runs than Soler with close to identical wOBA.

Personally, I think looking at these 2 stats do not tell nearly a full story about these players abilities and qualities in a lineup. Arraez's ability to put the ball in play is far superior to Soler. Arraez has an average almost 100 points higher while striking out in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while Soler is striking out 1 in every 4 plate appearances. This does not just show that Arraez puts the ball in play, but also shows that he has an ability to hit the ball in open areas that are not leading to outs.

When analyzing these stats and trying to determine which player is better for said team, it is important to understand team construction. A player like Arraez can be lethal on a team with extreme speed. To the extent guys can get on base, he will put the ball in play and create chaos for opposing defenses. With the added pressure of guys utilizing their speed, it could only add additional value to Arraez's ability to put the ball in play and get base hits.

On the contrary, to the extent you have a team with a lower average but moderate on base, Soler's power threat is going to generally produce more runs as they will not be able to generate runs via small ball, but rather will need to score more with the long ball. Your biggest trade off is a massive increase in strikeouts which can only benefit the opposing pitching staff.

Personally when looking at roster construction, I don't think people put enough focus on SO%. A strikeout is a meaningless AB. It builds confidence in the pitcher, takes pressure of the defense, and does not provide any opportunity for base runners to advance. A combination of high OBP, solid BA, and low SO% is going to put more wear and tear on pitchers than a pitcher who can average a SO an inning and only needs to pitch around the long ball.

So does batting average not matter anymore? Maybe not to some. When looking at batting average in connection with other stats like OBP, SO%, and some additional advanced metrics, batting average can still tell an important story. Putting the ball in play and placing it where a fielder is not located, puts pressure on opposing defenses and pitching staffs. This allows runners to advance while giving potential for base runners to take extra bases regardless of whether the hitter is hitting a single or an extra base hit. Although most organizations are highly focused and put a ton of value on exit velo, hitting a 110 MPH line drive directly at the left fielder is not as valuable as hitting a bloop over the second basemen's head.